Friday, December 11th, 2009...2:52 pm
November Holiday Retail Sales Rise: Pundits Pissed Off
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The numbers are in and, guess what? Sales ROSE in November! In spite of repeated reports of how shoppers weren’t coming out.
The Los Angeles Times this afternoon summed it up, “The government’s report came as a surprise but retail sales rose 1.3 percent last month, after a 1.1 percent October gain, the Commerce Department said Friday. It was the biggest advance since sales jumped 2.4 percent in August, and more than double the 0.6 percent increase economists had expected”.
Look for the media to pick this up and run the, “Well, it doesn’t mean anything or the numbers are skewed” they’ll have to find a way to spin it badly.
6 Comments
December 11th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
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December 11th, 2009 at 6:21 pm
At the risk of sounding like a naysayer, I think it’s important that we take an intelligent look behind the numbers in the headlines. The reported November retail increase of 1.3% was to a good extent driven by an increase in the price of gasoline – a largely non-discretionary purchase. When you back gas out of the numbers, the result is a meager 0.8% increase in retail.
My fear with with such a slim increase and the reported deep discounting that was taking place is that retailer operating profits may be significantly worse than last year – hardly good news no matter how rosy one tries to make it.
Personally, I don’t regard thoughtful analysis of the numbers as being “putting a bad spin” on them. I think we owe it to the people who listen to us to unpack the headlines in a pragmatic way.
December 12th, 2009 at 6:13 am
Hi Doug and thanks for commenting. Its still an increase. Go back to all of November when sales were lacking, disappointing, etc. One of the biggest things affecting consumer sentiment is the continued doom and gloom reporting about anything. The snarky, “yeah, but…” What someone thinks of “thoughtful analysis” often is affected by their personal philosophy don’t you think? I mean look at the difference between Fox, MSNBC and CNN.
December 12th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
I suppose that’s really the problem Bob. Consumers are often not really getting data, they’re getting opinion. And sometimes the opinions can get kind of reckless.
The data I’m seeing suggests that what’s really scaring consumers is their debt to savings ratio and job insecurity. These are issues that won’t wash away on a good month of sales.
The truth is we’re facing wicked problems that we all caused precisely because we didn’t acknowledge things for what they were. Until we fix the underlying problems in our industry and in the economy, no amount of cheer leading will solve the problem. And even worse, it may only prolong it.
December 13th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I was with you until I got to your last sentence. I am willing to be hopeful in an industry that seems to be the bellweather of what’s wrong with the world. Let’s face it, most of the majors couldn’t figure out how to be profitable when they were privately held, then turned to Wall Street and expanded on someone else’s dime. The independents often did much the same taking out home equity loans on their homes for businesses they didn’t pay attention to whether there was a need for or their own ability to make a profit. In spite of all that, the broad brush of doom and gloom is old news. People are ready to try new things, to hear some encouragement, why must everything become, “yeah but…” when it comes to those glimmers? There’s plenty enough time to dwell on things when they go wrong.
December 14th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
I don’t think anyone is suggesting that you quell your optimism. But conversely, when the consulting community starts calling informed analysis, aimed at truly addressing the root causes of a problem “doom and gloom” and suggesting that people will be “pissed off” to hear positive sales data, I think we really are in trouble.
The point is Bob, it focuses attention on us instead of where it should be…the retailers and manufacturers who need our help.
However, I remain “optimistic” that viewpoints, like everything else can change for the better.
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