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When is good news not good news? It all depends.
I read with great interest the first line from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, “U.S. home sales registered their biggest monthly jump in nearly seven years in December, as cratering prices began to draw out more buyers and several major housing markets showed some signs of stabilizing.”
All we’ve heard over the past 36 months is how many unsold single family homes are on the market and until they start moving, recovery is out of the question. So, I would think that headline news from yesterday would be welcome. 
Except of course I was reading the news.
Right after that, this from Richard Moody at Mission Residential, “Lower prices and lower interest rates will help sales to some extent, but the dismal condition of the labor market will remain a considerable drag on home sales over the remainder of 2009.”
Or how about this from Guy LeBas with Janney Montgomery, “Don’t jump out of your chair and call your real estate agent quite yet — we’re talking about the start of a trend that will likely play out over the next six months, not an instant fix.”
You can read all of the, “yeah..but..” comments at the WSJ site. On second thought, maybe not.
For if you did, you’d think there’s absolutely no good news in the fact more homes were sold in December than in the past seven years.
It isn’t Obama or Wall Street that’s wrong – it’s the people that have gotten a bigger mic to spread their lack mentality and glass half-full gospel.
I saw Rush Limbaugh’s interview quote on the monitor as I left MSNBC studios last Thursday morning, “I hope he fails.”
I immediately felt, “How in the world do people like this get air time? Does he get if Obama fails WE fail?” I quickly realized – of course he does.
So why does he say it? It was a calculated outrage.
People will quote him, his fans of snarkiness can take comfort, he can clarify his quote on more interviews and his sponsors get to sell Depends.
The battle for retail will be between your ears in 2009; garbage in – garbage out.
When America gets tired of the “it won’t work” or “worst is yet to come” comments, we’ll recover the best part of America. Until then it seems these folks are finding an even bigger audience.
enough already:
in november of ’07 the american people clearly stated that they want an era of bipartisanship. instead we’re getting a legislative branch epitomized by the hubris of pelosi, tryin g to show the boys that she’s got bigger scrotes than they do (hers are certainly bigger than harry reids) and the hypocritical, lock step posturing of the gop. the problems facing us are huge and what we need from congress is government, not politics.
while we’re at it, memo to the media, youre mostly a bunch of talking heads with no economic or political expertise, supplemented by a bunch of “experts” with their own highly personal agendas. instead of a constant diet of doom and gloom and why things wont work, how about some analysis of how we can make things can work.
many of the problems we now face are occurring between our own ears. people are scared and fear is our motivating factor. politicians and the media are feeding this fear. its largely unreasoned. if you were in a room with 100 people six months ago, 5 of them would have been unemployed. today, 8 of them are out of a job. not good, but thats an increase of only 3 people. and some of those people are of an age where retirement was on the immediate horizon anyway. on other fronts, yes, your house is now worth maybe 30% less than it was 3 years ago. if you plan to sell and upgrade, thats actually a good thing for you. if you dont plan to sell right now, it makes no difference. ditto your stock portfolios. are you cashing out completely at this moment and if so, why? every time you sell a stock in todays market, someone else is buying it. hmmm, do they know something you dont?
fdr said it best 75 yrs ago. saying its the only thing we have to fear might be overstating it, but not by much. if youve still got your job and youre managing to get by on what you earn – as 90% of us are – stop vexing about the end of the world. things are never as good as you think theyll be, and conversely, theyre never as bad. between the bank plan and the stimulus plan, a triilion five is going to be pumped into the economy. even if they do nothing more than pay one guy to dig holes and another to fill them, its money that gets paid out, spent, and circulated. and regarding inflation fears, the economy just lost 3 trillion. putting half of that back in is just replacing some of what used to be there.
the best comment i heard was on fox news of all places where some guy they were interviewing noted that 3 yr ago houses were overpriced and people were lining up to buy them. today, those properties are 30 to 50% less expensive and people are reluctant to buy. ditto the stock market when it was at 14000 and now that its below 7000. its like buying socks at full price and saying “no, no” when theyre on sale.
Great points! My mantra for 2009 is the battle isn’t for more customers, it’s between our own ears. People are buying Harry Den’ts The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History yet pay no attention that this is the same guy who predicted the DOW at 40,000. But fear sells. Check out my most recent post that included my debate on FOX at http://bobphibbs.wordpress.com/2009/03/06/small-business-stimulus/