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Archive for September, 2008

Don't Bet On the Depression of 2008

A great article is in today’s Wall Street Journal titled, “The Depression of 2008? Don’t Count on It” by Jason Zweig.  Due to its powerful antidote to the “sky is falling”.  I quote much of it here:

“The Wall Street domino has toppled just about everything in sight: U.S. stocks large and small, within the financial industry and outside of it; foreign stocks; oil and other commodities; real-estate investment trusts; formerly booming emerging markets like India and China.Of all the dominos that have tipped over, the most psychologically damaging collapse was the last: the very notion of diversification itself..

How much worse might things get?  Let’s consider some of the arguments that have been surfacing lately.

“We’re going into another Great Depression.” The failure on Monday of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass the bailout plan makes those G-D words seem possible for the first time. But I don’t think another depression is likely, for two reasons.

First, when you spend time studying the Crash of 1929 and the depression that followed, what stands out the most is the dearth of doomsayers. Even the economist known to posterity as “the man who called the crash,” did no such thing; he forecast only a 15% to 20% drop, not the apocalypse that actually occurred. Depressions start not when lots of people are worried about them, as we have today, but when no one is worried about them, as in 1929.

Second, the Great Depression occurred before the Federal Reserve Bank had aggressively grown into its role as “lender of last resort.” In the wake of 1873, after a railroad-building boom had swept the nation and then gone bust, companies and consumers alike were left gasping for capital. Nothing but the passage of time could supply it; the Fed would not be established until 1913. After the crash of 1929, when the Fed was still weak, years passed before the federal government could flood the economy with cash.

Today, however, the resolve of the Fed is not in question; nor is there any doubt that the Treasury Department is willing to provide the financing it takes to get the economy moving again. Furthermore, U.S. nonfinancial companies have just under $1 trillion in cash on their books. Even though Wall Street is dead, innovation is not: In the months to come, clever new financial go-betweens will spring up and find a way to get that cash flowing again. It’s hard to see how a depression could get under way when so much capital is waiting in the wings.

That’s what is happening now, but it will not last indefinitely. It never does. 

“Investors hate uncertainty.” Well, that’s just tough. Uncertainty is all investors ever have gotten, or ever will get, from the moment barley and sesame first began trading in ancient Mesopotamia to the last trade that will ever take place on Planet Earth.

If tomorrow were ever knowable with absolute certainty, who would take the other side of a trade today?

The financial future is no more uncertain now than it used to be; in fact, it’s far less uncertain than it was in the summer of 2007, when the Dow shot above 14000, the future seemed bright, and utterly no one foresaw the disaster that would befall the financial system. The absolute certainty of blue skies ahead was an illusion then, and the notion that we all know that worse misery lies in store is an illusion now.

The only true certainty is surprise.

You’ve probably spent a lot more time worrying about negative than positive surprises lately. But we could get surprised on the upside by a further fall in oil prices, a kick from low interest rates — and, of course, untold other possibilities that no one can foresee.

Whatever happens with the bailout, don’t bail out.”

I’m speaking this Friday morning at the Economic Summit in Richmond, Virginia and the message I’ll have for them is the same I give to you now.  No matter what is going on in the world – it is up to you to make the sale – not the government, Palin, Couric, Obama or the weather.  We have got to remain focused on the customer on the phone, walking in the door, sending an email.  Only then can we get out of this hysteria that is making for great ratings and sleepless nights. 

Krispy Kreme to Battle Coldstone Creamery

Are you kidding? Like Wall Street, truth is stranger than fiction.  USA Today detailed how Krispy Kreme has been trying to revive its sales for nearly three years, amid a health craze that made its warm glazed doughnuts an indulgence that many just couldn’t stomach.  Now industry watchers say Krispy Kreme Doughnuts’ latest turnaround plan includes selling ice cream with a topping bar.  Are you kidding? The company sees its products as “an affordable indulgence” and one of “many sweet treats available to consumers worldwide.”

Sales at stores open at least a year, dropped 6.5% in the six months ended Aug. 3. And that’s their money months!

This is like Kmart buying Sears – two troubled concepts holding on but unable to climb out of the whole they are in due to short-sighted company officers.

Earlier in this decade, Cold Stone Creamery was one of the hottest franchises around. The super-premium ice-cream stores attracted scores of franchisees hungry for a piece of the “Ultimate Ice Cream Experience.”  Now many franchisees are selling their stores, overwhelmed by soaring bills and shrinking profits. Some have lost their homes, broken their retirement nest eggs or filed for bankruptcy. One list on a Cold Stone Web site recently had 303 stores for sale — more than 20% of the company’s 1,384 as of last December.

They too found having one product daunting to build a year-round profitable business on.  Not to mention the fact local and state governments are legislating transparency in calories and ingredient labeling.  The trend is healthier eating – not even more of the same fat and calories in another form.

KK made their money on selling in bulk, they didn’t care for onesy-twosy sales, they wanted dozens of boxes to go out the door – that’s how their business model was based.  It was a donut factory that had to work overtime to turn a profit. Once the bloom was off the rose with KK donuts available at every Qwikie Mart in the country – cold and fairly bland, their fabulous PR and unique selling proposition were gone.  A stock that was once $50 a share is now in the $2 range.

The lesson to business owners everywhere is simple. When your market has moved or changed, change with them but don’t do more of the same.  (Remember Lehman Brothers last October boasted they were buying even more of the junk loans that were troublesome – now who’s boasting?)

True leaders find where they should be going forward, not grasping at cones.

Get Ready – Worst Retail Holiday Season EVER – Tonight at 11

OK, so unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that the financial markets are really, truly struggling to right themselves.  The chorus of gloom-and-doom sayers are swarming the airwaves like never before.  These are the same ones predicting $200 a barrel oil by Christmas, justifiying that it wasn’t speculators and it was a “new reality.”

Maybe I’m jaded.  When California had the energy crisis in 2000 a recall was launched on our governor. Seemed reasonable, the guy couldn’t even keep the lights on.  It wasn’t until later that we found out Enron had been turning off the power repeatedly to finagle California’s power and reap massive profits. Continue reading Get Ready – Worst Retail Holiday Season EVER – Tonight at 11 »

Lehman and A.I.G. Forgot Smith Barney – You Have To Earn It

There Are Lessons For Mom & Pop Businesses In Wall Street’s Tumult

It’s no mystery how Lehman, Behr Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and now A.I.G. have ended up – referencing the old Smith Barney commercial – they didn’t earn it.  Through manipulation and company executives’ hubris, those failed firms are now wrecking havoc on the world economy.  But make no mistake this didn’t come out of left field – many people could see what was happening beginning in 2005.

Anyone else feel like we’re watching reruns of Enron’s Smartest Guys In The Room? This time they aren’t just jacking California but the world. 

We’ll get through it, even if your grandchildren’s grandchildren will have to pay the cost.  The Federal government sees the cascading effect of letting a disorderly breakup of these major financial players continue and have stepped in.

If somebody had told economists a year and a half ago what was about to befall Wall Street and then asked them to predict the economic impact, they almost certainly would have forecast a steeper downturn, with many more layoffs, than has occurred. Lehman could have taken steps to correct their problems months ago – they went out and consciously purchased more of the toxic junk they were already holding thinking they wouldn’t get burned. 

The U.S. economy has now punished those who chose to bury their heads in the sand.

The lesson for mom & pop businesses is two-fold.  First, Wall St. is not Main Street.  We couldn’t leverage ourselves into such a predicament.  Or could we?  (See my post about Poka Dott last week.)

The lifeblood of the U.S. is the 22 million businesses with five or fewer employees.  Commonly referred to as “mom & pop” businesses, together they produce more than $1 trillion in annual revenues. 

Second, we as business owners have got to make a profit.  The days of taking out a home equity loan to support a failed business model should be done.  The days of starting a business because your husband/wife “needs something to do” are done.  So too are the days of hiring your friends because you are comfortable with them.  If you can’t fire them, you shouldn’t be hiring them.  You have to make a profit.

The lessons are clear for independent businesses – don’t assume things will magically turn around.  Sure the government swooped in and saved these giants but there’s nobody going to save you but you.

Do you have a mission to make people’s lives better by using your products or services rather than just a way to make a living?

Then get out there and compete!  Walk your neighborhood and introduce yourself.  Call your best customers.  Don’t just sit there and stew about your 401K or mortgage or get into mindless chatter about lipstick, Britney’s comeback or how awful the hurricane was.  You don’t have the luxury of a negative thought right now.

The ones to lead America now are you, the small business owners, the ones who don’t play games with other people’s money, who show up and work the long hours and who make a profit. 

We need you to do better than ever. You have to earn it. 

Don’t forget, you can always bring my positive sales tools to your next meeting, just come over and take a look at some of my clips.

We Mean Business Again Misses The Obvious

For those of you who read my review of A & E’s We Mean Business last week, you know I was not impressed with the “experts.”  I decided to give them another shot Saturday morning.

This week it was about Poka Dott, a party supply store in Newhall, California.  We found out the owner Stephanie Weier is $270,000 in debt after four years, her beautiful tract home has been on the market a year and facing foreclosure.  She has five full time employees.

Bill Rancic, the host and former Trump Apprentice asked what her highest profit items were.  She stammered and kind of laughed, “I guess balloons and cards, everything is.”  Bill rightly saw they had too much product.  She guessed they had 10,000 products in the store.

What Bill missed was showing Stephanie how much of her money was sitting there on the floor.  He should have had them do an inventory by category (at retail prices) and compare her sales to inventory to find her merchandise turn.  It’s one of the most obvious basics to understanding retail profitability.  It also could have helped viewers understand what an open-to-buy is.

Peter Gurski

But no time for that when Peter Gurski, the most obnoxious guy on a business program this side of Mad Money’s Jim Cramer enters the shop (at right.)  He tells us in voiceover, “I wanted to leave.  I couldn’t breath.  I was having an anxiety attack.  No flow.  Crammed.  A complete failure.  I have to tip something over.”  He took a few steps, pushed over a card display and sniffed, “There I’m happy.”

What a jerk. I guess that’s why he got the job on reality TV.

Katie Linendoll

Katie Linendoll

Katie Linendoll (left,) the shill for the show’s sponsors Dell computers, tells Stephanie in her best Valley Girl accent, “The back room is filled with junk!”  She went on to say she was going to, “Bring in the technology that will save this store.”

So the computer system is keeping sales from happening?

While she gets busy with the “50,000 wires,” the scene cuts to Peter throwing merchandise, Stephanie’s paid merchandise, out onto the parking lot like so much junk.  He gets upset Stephanie doesn’t greet this with good cheer and yells at her in front of her store and employees, “Are you serious about change or not?”

Note to reader: what I recommend any retailer do with very old merchandise is put it on sale at 60-70% off for a week or two tops.  Whatever doesn’t sell is cleaned up and given away as a free bonus to customers who make a purchase, donated to one of the hundreds of requests they get for silent auctions, or given to a charity.

Back to the show, the We Mean Business “experts” end up taking everything out of the store and we saw the crew painting the interior white – like the preceding episode –and the backs of the shelves a contrasting color –  also like the preceding episode.  When they are done it looks from the outside like an ice cream or kids’ candy store to me but it definitely doesn’t say “party.”

Inside it is less cluttered to be sure but don’t you think they could have increased the strips of flourescent lighting on the ceiling so it didn’t look so dark over the counter?Poka Dott new interior

The amazing thing to me in all of this is that Bill, Mr. Apprentice, never breaks it down to the obvious.  This store is $270,000 in debt.  That means it looses about $70,000 a year or about $6,000 a month or about $34 an hour it is open.  One month, Bill notes it has $40,000 in labor costs alone with sales of only $30,000. Yipes!

Side story: when I tried to help a woman owner who was “ok” that for the past 18 months she’d been losing $11,000 per month, she said, “You have to lose money to make money.”  “Ok,” I said, “think of it this way.  You are throwing away a brand new Mercedes Benz like you drive every four months.”  That got her attention. There’s losing money and then there’s losing money.  (This post is going to be long, if you want to know more about the metrics tools needed to not just stay in business, but thrive, send me an email and I’ll give you some ideas.)

But this new reality show from GRB Entertainment does not deal with the tools to see what is wrong like the turn of merchandise, open to buy or the appearance that this is a hobby, not an ongoing business.

No, just slap some white paint on the walls, give them a ton of Dell computer stuff, have Bill make them cower and voila – there’s the show.  I get it, they have 70 or 80 hours to edit into a 22-minute episode but it rarely illuminates the real issues. .

At one point though, Katie was spot-on when she said, “It is a sorority in there.”  We heard that the owner hadn’t ever fired anyone, couldn’t fire anyone and couldn’t accept she was not there to be everyone’s friend.  Even with her house in foreclosure because of this belief in a failed business, she still didn’t fire anyone.  That’s when the tears started – halfway through the episode.

Time for a commercial word from our sponsor.  “Fact: 96% of businesses have PC’s but only 48% have their own server.”  And the point to that was what exactly Dell?  Do most people even know what a server does or why they’d need it for their business?  It’s called features and benefits.

Next Bill had Stephanie pass out coupons at the park with balloons.  The local store marketing flier aspect was right on, not sure it needed the discounts though.  Personal contact is the promo.Poka Dott new exterior

The next day they had a grand re-opening with Bill Rancic making cotton candy out front and people coming into the shop.  We saw that one of “Master Designer” Peter Gurski’s brilliant ideas was to put their phone number on both of the front windows like a Chinese takeout restaurant.

If you watch the online follow-up, you find out Stephanie’s home was foreclosed but that she thanks the show.  In the exact same words as last week’s business owner, Stephanie said the best part was, “It gave me a kick in the butt.”

She went on, “We realized we have something here, let’s keep pushing.”  Her advice to business owners?  “If you think of it you can do it.”  Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Field of Dreams only works in the movies and only for Kevin Costner.  Just because you have the idea for a business, does not mean there is a market for it.  The reason sales are low for many businesses that are struggling is there is not a sufficient need for their product or service.  They have to develop a clientele that will grow or sit there in a storefront waiting.  That leads to desperate and disparate ideas.

Case in point, the follow-up shows Stephanie’s crew putting labels on bottles of water with her logo to give out so they can “get leads and follow-up later.”  No strategy as to how water fits in with party supplies or how or where these will be given out or the breakeven to pay for the water.

There is a big difference between doing “something” and doing the right thing.

The first rule I think is obvious for gift stores is to hold on to the people who know you; don’t lose the key to their wallet.  Stephanie should have been instructed to create an email list from current and former customers so she could stay in contact with them using a web-based program on her new Dell laptop like Constant Contact.  It costs far less to market to people who know you then try to woo new customers.

The second obvious thing is to be open when customers need you to be open, not when it is convenient for you.  Their website says their hours are Monday thru Friday 9 a.m. – 5 p.m. and Saturday 9 a.m. to 12 p.m. I know of no successful business that is open for three hours on the largest shopping day of the week. Again, this shows it is more of a hobby, not a going concern. You want to be profitable?  Be open when most of the community could shop there.

A third recommendation I would give is to do something with their website.  One example, many categories of products have a place for “bestsellers” but at the bottom of those pages it says, “There are no best sellers.”  The site has a lot of generalities without personality.

If you are one of those business owners who are enamored with the idea of owning your own business and are so far in debt you can’t see straight, consider the best thing to do could be to quit.  But often our egos are attached and we don’t know when enough is enough.

You want real tools to change your business?  Consider picking up a copy of my small business book, You Can Compete: Double Sales Without Discounting. It walks you through a business makeover based on reality. It won’t give you a new computer system, but it also won’t insult you like Peter Gurski.

Don’t forget, you can always bring my expertise to your next meeting, just come over and take a look.

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